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Volume 19, Issue 3 (Iranian Journal of Breast Diseases 2026)
ijbd 2026, 19(3): 73-92 |
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Research code: IR.KUMS.REC.1404.098
Ethics code: IR.KUMS.REC.1404.098
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Gholamiveis R, Shaahmadi Z, Heydarpour F, Ramazani Y, Moradinazar M. Trends in Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality Among Iranian Women Aged 30–69 Years and GBD-Attributable Risk Burden: An Ecological Age–Period–Cohort Analysis. , ijbd. 2026; 19 (3) :73-92
URL: http://ijbd.ir/article-1-1243-en.html
URL: http://ijbd.ir/article-1-1243-en.html
Rasoul Gholamiveis1 
, Zahra Shaahmadi2 , Fatemeh Heydarpour3 , Yousef Ramazani1 , Mehdi Moradinazar *4
, Zahra Shaahmadi2 , Fatemeh Heydarpour3 , Yousef Ramazani1 , Mehdi Moradinazar *4
1- Student Research Committee, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
2- Clinical Research Development Center, Imam Khomeini and Mohammad Kermanshahi Hospitals, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
3- Medical Biology Research Center, Health Technology Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran & Lifestyle Modification Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
4- Fertility and Infertility Research Center, Health Technology Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran ,m.moradinazar@gmail.com
2- Clinical Research Development Center, Imam Khomeini and Mohammad Kermanshahi Hospitals, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
3- Medical Biology Research Center, Health Technology Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran & Lifestyle Modification Research Center, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
4- Fertility and Infertility Research Center, Health Technology Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran ,
Abstract: (360 Views)
Introduction: Breast cancer is the most common malignancy among Iranian women, with shifting epidemiological patterns. This study aimed to analyze age-period-cohort (APC) effects on breast cancer incidence and mortality among Iranian women aged 30–69 years and assess temporal trends in attributable risk factors.
Methods: This ecological study utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 estimates for Iranian women (1992–2021). APC analysis was conducted using the National Cancer Institute’s APC Web Tool. Joinpoint regression was used to estimate the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) attributable to key risk factors.
Results: The age-standardized incidence rate increased from 22.39 to 52.87 per 100,000 population between 1992 and 2021, with a significant net drift of 3.59% (95% CI: 3.16–4.02%). The age-standardized mortality rate increased from 6.68 to 9.42 per 100,000 population, with a net drift of 1.59%. Metabolic risk factors, particularly high body mass index (AAPC: 3.73%) and high fasting plasma glucose (AAPC: 3.03%), showed the steepest rises in attributable DALYs.
Conclusion: Breast cancer incidence in Iran increased substantially, driven by significant period effects, while mortality rose more slowly. The parallel increase in metabolic risk-attributable DALYs highlights the need for targeted prevention strategies, though individual-level causality requires further clinical validation.
Methods: This ecological study utilized Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 estimates for Iranian women (1992–2021). APC analysis was conducted using the National Cancer Institute’s APC Web Tool. Joinpoint regression was used to estimate the Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) in Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) attributable to key risk factors.
Results: The age-standardized incidence rate increased from 22.39 to 52.87 per 100,000 population between 1992 and 2021, with a significant net drift of 3.59% (95% CI: 3.16–4.02%). The age-standardized mortality rate increased from 6.68 to 9.42 per 100,000 population, with a net drift of 1.59%. Metabolic risk factors, particularly high body mass index (AAPC: 3.73%) and high fasting plasma glucose (AAPC: 3.03%), showed the steepest rises in attributable DALYs.
Conclusion: Breast cancer incidence in Iran increased substantially, driven by significant period effects, while mortality rose more slowly. The parallel increase in metabolic risk-attributable DALYs highlights the need for targeted prevention strategies, though individual-level causality requires further clinical validation.
Type of Study: Research |
Subject:
Epidemiology
Received: 2026/04/27 | Accepted: 2026/09/9 | Published: 2026/10/22
Received: 2026/04/27 | Accepted: 2026/09/9 | Published: 2026/10/22
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